Study Explores Biomarkers for Predicting Dementia Risk

A study published in Nature Medicine investigated the ability of specific blood biomarkers—tau217, Neurofilament Light (NfL), and Glial Fibrillary Acidic Protein (GFAP)—to predict the occurrence of dementia, including Alzheimer’s disease, up to ten years before diagnosis in cognitively healthy older adults. 

Previous research indicated the potential of these biomarkers for early dementia detection, but most studies focused on individuals already experiencing cognitive issues. To assess their predictive value in the general population, researchers conducted a large community-based study involving over 2,100 adults aged 60 and older. Participants were followed for a decade to determine whether they developed dementia.

At the ten-year follow-up, 17% of participants had been diagnosed with dementia. The biomarkers demonstrated an accuracy of up to 83% in predicting dementia risk. “This is an encouraging result, especially considering the 10-year predictive window between testing and diagnosis,” said Giulia Grande, assistant professor at Karolinska Institutet and first author of the study.

The study also found that individuals with low levels of these biomarkers had minimal risk of developing dementia within ten years. “This information could offer reassurance to individuals worried about their cognitive health,” said Davide Vetrano, senior author. However, elevated biomarker levels alone were not sufficient to reliably identify individuals who would develop dementia during this period due to low positive predictive values.

Researchers emphasized that these biomarkers are not yet suitable as standalone screening tools for the general population. Combining tau217 with NfL or GFAP may improve predictive accuracy, but further research is needed to integrate these biomarkers with other clinical or biological data for effective use in real-world settings.